Enough of that... on to the picks!
Bears (-2) over BUCS - Both teams are coming off big home wins and have to make a long trip to London for this game. By this game being at a neutral site, it takes away any home field advantage the Bucs would have had if played in Tampa. The Bucs are a young team that doesn't have any big superstars (yet). This makes them inconsistent and they lack a big play type guy on offense. With L. Blounte out of today's game, the Bears should have no problem stopping the run and forcing the young TB quarterback to make plays. While I like Josh Freeman, he doesn't have a WR like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings etc... The Bears don't typically lose to teams that lack that big player. On the other side of this pick is what Vegas is doing. The Bucs started the week off as a 1.5 point favorite and the line has moved a total of 3.5 points to make the Bears a 2 point favorite! That is a lot of movement, especially with the public betting the Bears at 73%.
Take the Bears in this one!
Seahawks (+3) over BROWNS - In watching the Browns last week I concluded a couple things. First, Colt McCoy does not have the arm strength to be a top quarterback in the NFL. He lacked the zip all of the top quarterbacks have in this league. He also missed several wide open receivers numerous times in the game, especially along the sideline. The second observation is that Monterio Hardesty is not Peyton Hillis. This guy can't catch and lacks the ability to break tackles like Hillis. There are some serious concerns in Cleveland about whether Hillis will play much through the remainder of the season. Seattle is coming off a win against the NY Giants in New York and then a much needed bye week. The Seahawks have been surprisingly competitive this year with the emergence of a decent pass game.
The public is betting 67% toward the Browns and the line has not moved. I really like taking the Seahawks in this one and betting with Vegas.
Other Lock Picks:
Packers (-10) over VIKINGS - Packers are 5-1 this season against the spread and don't show any signs of slowing down. The Vikings come into this one with a rookie quarterback and off an embarrassing loss to the Bears. Having home field may keep this game slightly closer but don't expect Minnesota to cover.
COWBOYS (-14) over Rams - With Sam Bradford out I don't see how the Rams keep this one close. The Rams are 0-6 against the spread this year.
Redskins (+2.5) over PANTHERS - This one may get me a loss this week because I'm taking this solely on the line movement. 77% of the public is taking the Panthers and the line has moved .5 points in Redskins favor. I like Washington's defensive front this year, which will force Cam Newton to win them the game. While Cam is extremely talented, he has been making a lot of mistakes over the course of the last couple weeks. I'll go with Vegas in this one.
